Retail Sales Report - An Economic Indicator

The United States and the United Kingdom have both given importance to the contribution of retailing markets to their economic growth that they even have monitoring departments within the government to measure how these sector fared monthly, quarterly, semi-annual and annually in measuring their economic viability and contribution to how the consumer spends their hard-earned money.

In the Philippines, we also have private groups such as Business Monitor and Euromonitors but these are not as complete as what the US Department of Commerce would have done, but are good basis for our own country's view on what the retail sector in the Philippines has been doing.

An Overview
Retail Sales is very closely watched by both economists and investors. This indicator tracks the dollar value of merchandise sold within the retail trade by taking a sampling of companies engaged in the business of selling end products to consumers. Both fixed point-of-sale  businesses and non-store retailers (such as mail catalogs and vending machines) are used in the data sample. Companies of all sizes are used in the survey, from Wal-Mart to independent, small-town businesses. 

The data released will cover the prior month's sales, making it a timely indicator of not only the performance of this important industry (consumer expenditures generally make up about two-thirds of total gross domestic product), but of price level activity as a whole.Retail Sales is considered a coincident indicator, in that activity reflects the current state of the economy. It is also considered a vital pre-inflationary indicator, which creates the biggest interest from Wall Street watchers and the Conference Review Board,which tracks data for the Federal Reserve Board's directors. 

The release will contain two components: a total sales figure (and related % change from the previous month), and one "ex-autos", as the large ticket price and historical seasonality of auto sales can throw off the total figure disproportionately.

What it Means for Investors The release of the Retail Sales Report can cause above-average volatility in the stock market. Its clarity as a predictor of inflationary pressure can cause investors to rethink the likelihood of Fed rate cuts or hikes, depending on the direction of the underlying trend. For example, a sharp rise in retail sales in the middle of the business cycle may be followed by a short-term hike in interest rates by the Fed in the hope of curbing possible inflation. This would cause investors to sell bonds (causing yields to rise), and could pose problems for stocks as well, as inflation causes decreased future cash flows for companies.

If retail sales growth is stalled or slowing, this means consumers are not spending at previous levels, and could signal a recession due to the significant role personal consumption plays in the health of the economy.

One of the most important factors investors should note when viewing the indicator is how far off the reported figure is from the so-called consensus number, or "street number". In general, the stock market does not like surprises, so a figure that is higher than expected, even when the economy is humming along well, could trigger selling of stocks and bonds, as inflationary fears would be deemed higher than expected.

Retail companies themselves can be especially volatile with the release of this widely read industry report. The release data will show the sales performance of all the component sectors within retail (such as electronics retailers and restaurants), allowing investors to peek in on relative "pockets of strength" within the overall figures. An investor holding stocks in retail can see how his or her holdings are performing relative to the sector as a whole - a valuable analysis regardless of overall market conditions.

Strengths:

• The retail sales data is extremely timely, and is released only two weeks after the month it covers.
• The data release is robust; investors can download a full breakout of component sectors, as well as spreadsheet historical data to examine trends.
• Retail sales reports get a lot of press. It's an indicator that is easy to understand and relates closely to the average consumer.
• A revised report comes out later (two to three months on average), amending any errors.
• Analysts and economists will take out volatile components to show the more underlying demand patterns. The most volatile components are autos, gas prices and food prices.
• Data is adjusted seasonally, monthly and for holiday differences month to month.

Weaknesses:

• Revisions to the report (released about two months after the advance report) can be quite large, and the sample size is relatively small compared to the number of retailers opening their doors to consumers.
• Retail sales data is often volatile from month to month, which makes trend-spotting difficult.
• The indicator is based on dollars spent and does not account for inflation. This makes it difficult for individual investors to make decisions based on the raw data.
• Does not account for retail services, only physical merchandise. The U.S. is an increasingly service-based economy, so not all retail "activity" is captured.

The Closing LineRetail Sales is one of the big ones - a report that can shed a lot of light on the economy. It provides detailed industry information and can really move the market. Investors will best be served by waiting for the analysts to sort through the report, removing any overly volatile components, and drawing conclusions from there. For owners of individual retail stocks, look at the sector growth rates to determine the relative performance of individual stocks held in a particular sector.

On a personal note, I hope our government will give more emphasis and importance by monitoring the retail sector to give our economist and students of retailing ample, complete picture and data as to the over-all potential of contribution to grow and even support expanding enterprises.  We have many parallel importers, underground retail economic activities going ons that slipped the very eye of government statisticians. What private sector monitoring has are primarily focus towards the big retail players and does not quantify the over-all dynamics of the mass-retail sector.

Food Shortage?

Its been the news all over the world, that even the Haitian Presidential Palace has been attempted to be ransack by the populace due to the growing concern on food scarcity.

Rising oil prices, food prices, shortage, hoarding, blackmarket, queuing for food, food stamps, are this for real? Could there be some manipulation being orchestrated by some force or conduits of power? Global warming have already been pointed as the major culprit, for many years, every nation of the world, turned their arable land for food production into land for planting bio fuel energy sources.

Will another war be declared due to food clamoring for survival. May it never happen.

This is the year and I bet just the start of a 3 year food crisis worldwide, Inflation rising, Demands growing, Food depleting, Income cannot cope. The Real CEREAL killer.

Rushed deadline

Its a Monday and its a holiday that makes it an unusual start of my week, as I have to stay home, but I'm occupied with paperworks from the past..and I have to browse through all my papers, documents, receipts from January 2007 till this month.

Time is running out and I still have alot to write, calculate, balance...

Cash on hand, Income Statement, Balance Sheet, Gross Expense, Other Income, Net Income, Asset, Liabilities, Owner's Equity, Tax payable...Whooa! my mind is boggling with so many figures, wondering where the Cash has been all this time.

April 15 deadline...

My balance sheet has to be produce yet.. has to be scrutinize by my accountant, who luckily is a friend and can drop by anytime and we can exchange ways in order to minimize my payable for the income year 2007.

Still searching for those receipts. Charitable contribution, leisure expense, church tithing, training and seminar expense, food expense, entertainment expense. Tax avoidance the best way we know how.

Next week I'd be having two income tax returns on my file, one which I personally computed, prepared, the other one, my company has prepared.

Time consuming, stress, pressure and more pressure...at the end of the day, hopefully and prayerfully, I'll need to catch up a conversation or two with friends and neighbors, also wanting to watch that stage play my friend will be portraying.

Whew! why can't we just simply be under a charity care.

Support Earth Hour

A worldwide campaign for saving mother nature pertaining to climate change is going full blast on March 29, 2008, everyone is invited to show their support for EarthHour.org by turning our lights off for just one hour, 8pm-9pm local time and save energy to help save our emission by 5%.

Just sign up at www.earthhour.org and tell your friends and make a difference for our planet

Catalyst Changer

"To change one’s life, start immediately, 

do it flamboyantly, 

no exceptions." 

- William James

We have heard of the saying, "Change is the only constant in the universe".  A lot of going ons in our daily life that we sometime tend to be stagnant or stay on routine in our everyday activities.  But pondering on, I realize that we have to come to a pause and make a self reflection of what we do, how we should do things, are there things we have done well, are there room for improvements and what are we willing to discard, be it our attitude, personality to make us a better and effective citizen of the universe. 

We want to set good social examples for our family, friends, colleagues, acquaintances and those we interact each and every single day of our life.  We want to set an inspirational mood, a life that others would want to emulate.  We want to be the motivating others with our life, our work, our words and deeds.

Why we do what we do, for example in our workplace, we try to meet deadlines, exceed our bosses expectations, reach our target sales, showing punctuality in reporting for work and even not going beyond our lunch breaks and coffee breaks.  It is because we have the innate persona of being obedient, wanting to stand pleasing before others and show our good conduct and exceptional self.  We are shy of asking for it, the praise and esteem of other people who are around us that is why we end up in self-acclamation by doing what is right and natural good in everything we do.

In the eyes of the law, we are obedient citizens not getting ourselves into trouble, we don't want to counter the set rules in our streets, we drive with caution, we don't steal, we don't do indecent and scandalous actions in public place inorder to preserve our own dignity and be called good law abiding citizens.  

Steadfastly, it is our constant aim and journey to reach that goal of continually learning, changing, evolving to have the power to set a positive and harmony in our family and community.  In later years, as we look back and see how we have gained much wisdom, building our own character, social grace, honor and respect as people would have known as through the years of our evolution.  It is because of our self evolving nature to constantly find ways to improve ourselves, our social status. 

But there are some who are just reluctant to make their own changes, to flow with the changing times and technology but they are well aware of it, yet they are doing nothing because they got used to the "normalcy" of their life.  They aim not for anything but the sheer living in the present status quo.  Soon they may have to catch up.

As for me, I want to be a catalyst, a constant evolution of myself, to be a life force of life change.  I believe with this I can be a successful game changer in my own life, in the life of those I touch and inspire and will always be inspiring.  We always try to criticize everyone else but its now time to first look within and see how we can impact our immediate family and community first with our evolution, being that catalyst change that the world badly needs and perhaps we can inspire others to be the same, ever changing for improving our social order and make that positive difference in this universe.

Sharksfin

Sharksfin I saw being displayed in one of those fine dining restaurant in Shatou, China

Dying Inside

The Bible says: "Humility is one of the best ways against humiliation. "

Oftentimes we tend to envy others when they outdo us, when someone has bought or receive some new things like a far bigger house, a much grander car, wearing a rolex watch, signature clothing, a nice leather shoes, an ipod, a cellphone, computer, laptap, digicam.

Even to a certain extent of the workplace, when someone sees that his peers are getting ahead of the pack, promoted sooner than expected, someone younger is better at task and your boss is noticing the new kids passion at work unlike you.

We tend to hate them, sometimes we tend to hate ourselves and we turned sour on what others has accomplished. This should not be, we ought to appreciate and thank those people for inspiring us rather than thinking we should be bitter because we don't have they have.

Life may seemed unfair at times, others leisurely spend even though they seem not to have worked hard enough in life, others are working to death inorder to make ends meet and put food on the family table. Others seem to have luck smiling at them while fortune seem to be blinded by your own meager quest.

Life isn't unfair, infact it has been so fair that we tend not to notice our own growth, our own strength because we get blinded by personal desires, wants and ambition to the point of wanting to pull others down rather than lifting them up.

Personally, I would have wondered years back as to the kind of journey I have taken, such an uphill climb, a rough rocky mountain and at times thorny. I've fell many times, sometimes having to go hungry and thirsty, losing a job several times, worrying where my next meal would come, how to repay debts, oftentimes I asked God and at one point cursed God for making life too hard for me. Though later on I repented for putting the blame on God when I should be the one seeing the magnificent beauty that He brought into my life.

In those thorny struggling moment of my life, I had several occasions to ponder upon my existence, my walk, my faith, my belief, the people I encountered and failed to thank them, and those that have brought me so much anguish and pain that I need to forgive, it taught me a very wonderful lesson in all those years of struggles, Humility.

I have to rise up again, humbled, forgiving, loving and with high hopes that the next journey would be far bigger and better. The best is yet to come I'd always say.... so I never fet any remorse nor bitterness for those I know have more in life, because I know, I have far greater than what they have materially and that is I learned to manage my emotions and spiritually I am at peace with my world and those surrounding me.

Education and Environment can make a difference

Yesterday was a very enthusiastic day for me as I attended a lecture of Mr. James D. Wolfensohn on "Beyond East-West, North-South–Peace and Prosperity in a four speed world" at the De La Salle University Manila.

Prior to the lecture by Mr. Wolfensohn, he was conferred Doctorate in Humanities Honoris Causa by the President of DLSU Manila and the Chairman of the Board of the same university. Mr. Wolfensohn's credential is so outstanding, besides having served as World Bank President for two consecutive terms, He is also active in many social, and Philantropic institutions such as The Kennedy Foundation and the Carnegie Hall for the Perfoming Arts.

Mr. Wolfensohn discussed about the need to alleviate poverty through government's need to allocate more funds towards education, caring for the environment, institutional support for the community. He cited the statistics of world GDP, where currently Asia in 2007 has 15% of the world GDP, in he predicted that either by 2050, this would jumped to 60% mainly because of India and China's growing economies. But the current GDP of Asia is considered small as compared to the 16th and 18th century statistics which has India and China already having 15% of World GDP back then.

The difference between the two economies, the Developed economies and the developing economies worldwide is at a shifting mode where we are currently creating more middle class due to migration and service export such as our own OFW's.

He also cited the growing population who are also on the poverty level despite the growing numbers of middle class as the Rich countries are getting richer, so does the poor are doubling in numbers. That is why Education plays a key role in managing the exponential growth of those in the poverty level. Educating the majority of the social masses gives a clearer and more profound character and views for them to manage family welfare and income growth on the otherhand.

The environment should also be focus upon especially by highly industrialized nations as well as those emerging economies like China and India that has to balance environmental care and corporate growth, else there would arise far more bigger problems if mother nature isn't cared well.

During the open forum, he talked about some of his frustrations of not being listened upon often by world leaders on his take regarding environment, education and social justice issues and he appreciates that there are new breed of leaders being groomed from educational institutions that listens to his lecture and perhaps when the ripe moments comes in the future that these new leaders may somehow affect the change he so eagerly desired to accomplished in order to sustain peace.

The lecture was a very uplifting, inspiring and moving talk on what each individuals among us who may cause these growth and future developments to happen in bridging poverty through support on environmental, educational, cultural and mutual understanding to have a lasting peace and growing abundance for every individuals.

China Economics

The rate of a dollar to Renminbi is 7.09, temperature is between 8 C - 18 C.

My recent trip to Shantou and Chenghai of the Guangdong province in China last week to source new Toys has been a bit tougher than it used to be, there have been fewer new toy designs being made in these industrial region these days, comparing the old samples in storage at the showroom, it just seems like they're more attractive than the new ones being brought by manufacturers.

The scarcity of factory workers has been one reason why there's been fewer stocks being produced for international buyers, as most of the local people preferred migrating to other provinces working for hotels, karaoke bars and other less straining jobs. There's one particular factory I used to visit some 3 yrs ago and they have been a major manufacturer of Robots, they exports these robotic toys worldwide but due to the scarcity of workers, they couldn't fill all their orders, and all they do is try to fill the orders of major buyers that buys in tons of containers.

Another hurdle in doing business lately is higher cost to produce new designs of toys and its packaging which would estimatedly cost the manufacturers to spend between RMB 5,000 to 10,000. So for most factories, it would seem economical and practically cost saving to just continue selling the old designs they used to have rather than come up with new designs and packaging.

Social security and witholding taxes of local workers could add another cost for manufacturers in Shantou as the government has strictly implemented new rules regarding social security and taxation, this will definitely affect the profit margins of factory manufacturers and will then have to increase 25% of their product cost once this is implemented.

The industrial landscape and current local employment rules has drastically change the way industrialist does business.

Starbucks Passion for Excellence

Ever wondered why Starbucks has consistently dominated its market lead despite facing alot of competition from an industry of coffee shops mushrooming to capture a billion dollar industry?

Lets face it, the competition like Seattles Best, Dunkin Donuts, Figaro, Bo's coffee(in the Philippines) has for many years tried to capture the big chunk of Starbuck's market but to no apparent success, Starbuck's continues to lead the pack with the bulk of the coffee drinkers and even the non-coffee drinker's prefer Starbucks than the rest even if the price is a bit costlier than other coffee shops.

Yesterday, Starbucks closed down operation nearly 7100 stores across the US, its not because they are on holiday or is set to go bankrupt, the main reason is they have gathered all their employees for a re-training on how to make an espresso, ensure that their barista's do not resteam their milk and to just steam fresh milk, to make sure that it takes 15 to 19 seconds for each espresso shots to pour from the machine so that they come out like honey dripping from a spoon. They also reminded their barista's to smile, thank their customers and make eye contact with their customers when serving their drinks.

Though it has been the company policy all throughout starbucks stores worldwide, however the consistency is being ensured through their recent training that these are consitently being followed and implemented.

Barista's also exchanged comments, experiences and challenges they face at work especially with remembering their regular customers.

Now that's what a company ought to be, always retooling their frontlint barista's to always keep the connectiveness with their customers, and though one day of closure for the store will definitely have an impact on their sales, nevertheless the Starbucks management is far sighted in viewing that one day of retraining is worth a dozen times benefit for the company in the long term.

Now, that's deserving Starbucks to be on Top.

Avastin- a new hope for breast cancer

The US FDA has announced last February 22, that it has conditionally approved the Genentech's Avastin drug for breast cancer. Avastin which blocks blood vessel growth to the tumor has been in the market for over 3 years now for colon and lung cancer, it has also been approved in Europe and being prescribed for breast cancer.

Although FDA's advisory panel voted against the approval 5-4, because the drug shrank tumors but did not lead to longer life or improved quality of life for cancer patients. FDA has recently took a surprise decison in approving Avastin. This took the doctor's and investor's by surprise since FDA doesnt always disregard the opinion of its own advisory panel regarding approval of drugs.

The surprising decision has been deemed to reflect the agency's flexibility amidst the many criticisms from cancer advocacy groups due to the agency's failure to approve any new cancer drugs last year.

The decision has placed high hopes that Provenge, a drug that is considered to help prostate cancer patients, can also be approved this year. Though it failed to shrink tumors in the 127-patient trial presented to the FDA last year, a standard measure of efficacy. But patients on Provenge did live 4.5 months longer than those on standard treatment, with fewer side effects.

Since no new drugs for advanced prostate cancer have been introduced in more than 20 years, oncologists and patients alike are eager to see Provenge approved. The advisory committee voted 17-0 that the drug was safe and 13-4 that it was effective

Looking forward to more research and development on cancer vaccines and treatment soon.

EJ

"EJ - Ang pinagdaanang buhay ni Eveleo Javier at Edgar Jopson"

Watching this play last night at CCP depicting the life and times of two of the social reformists of their generation against the ugly regime of Marcos dictatorship. Though they both came from different setting, different social class, fought a different battle, but both studied at Ateneo de Manila, Edgar Jopson fougth for social reform leading the National Union of Students of the Phils. while Eveleo Javier who saw the ugly political system of his home province Antique decided to change the landscape of Politics thru reforms.

The social and moral values of the play still plays a significant role in our present modern setting, corruption, oligarchs rule, hunger, injustices and military abuses has been a constant struggle during this two youthful leaders times. Times have changed, leadership have changed but the same ugly hand of greed, power, injustice prevails.

One funny plot of the story is when Edjop brought his girlfriends and later becoming his wife Joy to China where a Red cloth was unfurled as the backdrop of the scene and the cast cutely dressed in Mao's communist attire holding on to a red book marching towards the stage, every playful statue like movement was well choreographed, the marching and poses has catched the audience attention as well as the musical score was relatively chinese and the man raising the red flag shouting YI, ER, SAN, SE(1,2,3,4 in mandarin) several times elicited much laughter from the audience.

The most gripping scene was when Edjop and his company were being interrogated and the 2 women cast were being tortured by allege military men and screams of the scene can emotionally touch the inmost soul of the audience what horror those women went thru during the Martial law years, the rape scene was also worth noting.

As for the scene on the life of Eveleo Javier, the comedy rest on the scene where the townsfolk came to give their donations for the construction of a gymnasium for the western Visayas meet back when he was elected as Governor. The reality that if your not a supporter of the President, funds will be deprived from your province and thus evcen cause much hardship on the delivery of basic services to the community.

Over all the play is great, the cast were absolutely stunning in their performance and shows their flexibility in their roles as their character portrayal changes, the music and choreography and the entire script is definitely appropriate and the social relevance of it to our modern socio-political landscape is appropriate in time for social awakening.

The musical score is being rendered by the band Sisig who were also onstage.

Bravo to the entire cast and crew, writer, director of EJ.

Honesty and Integrity

Our country has been plagued by scandal after scandal without seeing any end on the broiling political clamor for change. In other countries, businesses going under, encountering tax problems, faces probes and embarassments.

What's wrong with people nowadays? It because everyone thought of getting away with a small mistake, that even a bribe is being deemed a favor, a gift that necessitates to be reciprocated with another favor.

In any course of life, be it at work, in school, or at play from the high office of the land to the lowly citizen, everyone should have the integrity and will power to commit the highest standard of individualism.

I remember once living with friends and we had a dilemma back then that we usually lose our stuffs especially jewelry and money. Since we have no other way of finding out who is the real culprit, it could either be a ghost or elves playing on us, as one of our housemate suggested.

We decided to play a game one evening, its a scrabble game but theres a pot of money for the taking, Four players playing a friendly game and suddenly one decided to cheat on all, thus we found out who amongst us is willing to cheat for a small amount of money.

We are all born and raise to be good and its our innate to be helpful unfortunately being greedy is also an innate instinct in all of us.  May we overcome our selfish intentions for the greater good of all.

Morning Glory

I stared through the transparency,

a magnificent smile meets me.

Peered through me,

benevolent acts,

that sweeping voice,

resounding the cymbals of tune.

This anchor I entrust,

noble scope of blue meteor.

I salute the early morning face,

so sublime, innocence demurring.

Stupidity leads to scandal

A Hong Kong actor-singer learned a valuable and painful lesson at the expense of losing a career in showbusiness and exposing the nakedness of several women. Edison Chen who had been scandalize by the posting of his explicit photos with other female celebrities such as Gillian Chung, Bobo Chan, Cecilia Cheung has rocked the entire Hong Kong community in recent weeks.

The pictures and photos allegedly stolen from the laptap of Edison Chen when he brought it to be repaired to a computer technician last year has been circulated around the internet for the past weeks and its spreading like wildfire. A certain Kira who seems to be championing a moral crusade in Hong Kong against actors and celebrities like Edison is still a mystery.

But claims that there are more wrecking videos and photos that can even cause shame to the business community since some well known businessmen's wife are also in those photos, may seem too much to fathom, its only to keep the flame of this news more sensational. Thousands of photos have already been posted on the net and these has since cause alot of news even in China. Witch hunt for the culprit is onlgoing and the mere view of those pictures or downloading it may cause trouble to an ordinary Hong Konger's.

The apology made by this actor came too late a time, though remorseful as it seems to be, the photos and videos doesn't seem to present that it does occur in their mind back then. He should have known better that being a real man doesn't have to mean fucking around and be careless, to the extent of his reputation being scrutinize just because of his playboy image and plain stupidity.

This scandal has cause shame and even anguish to those involved, and while Edison Chen has since gave his intention to quit showbusiness, such a waste of talent just because he couldn't resist taking a shot of himself and the women he cuddles even on their private moments, exposing their private parts.

A disgusting desire to keep and store those photos, only to be spread across the globe by the power of connectivity. Learn the lesson of not playing with the idea of showing flesh unless you can earn a substantial amount of money by posting it and if you are a porn star at that.

A. Pot

Loving you is the greatest miracle,

anyone could have captured your glimpse.

I thank God everyday for

you have bestowed upon me your love;

How could I ever repay such generous

and precious lovingkindness;

more than anything

I long to behold you in my arms every breath I live.

Such tenderness of your kiss

that embrace which brings life anew birthing.

Its not a token but a lifetime gift to ever hold and cherish.

Beloved Forever,

a tranquil dream turned into reality.

Nihilism

"In the mountains of truth you never climb in vain."
-Friedrich Wilhelm Nietzsche

I came across the book "Will to Power" some years ago, a posthumous compilations and writings by Friedrich Wilhelm Nietzsche believing in the philosophy of Nihilism, the stand on which Being especially past and current human existence, is without objective meaning, purpose, comprehensible truth or essential value.

A philosophy to which invalidates the very meaning of life's existence and of God himself.
Nietzsche never wanting to acknowledge the existence of a higher being and stood for the call for individualism and that neither truth nor is there value for any action rather that which is individually perceived as right to each his own.

Nietzsche, a philosopher and poet and a great mind of his time but has always been perceived indifferent towards his peers and contemporaries such as Karl Marx, and Sigmund Freud. For years he has patronized and associated himself with Wagner but through many years that he deemed sufficed for his own recognition, he tried to tear apart the stand and philosphy of Wagner without remorse nor gratitude for his formative years in the philology circle.

Much more than fame, he tried to capture the intellectual circle with his self proclaimed philosophy and belief in the non-existence of God by declaring "God is Dead" thru his writing of "Thus Spoke Zarathustra" which he wrote in 4 parts between 1883-1885.

Unfortunately for Nietzsche, God is not dead and infact God was listening all along, on January 3, 1889 he collapsed in Turin, Italy and when he awoke he lost his sanity and on Aug 25, 1890, he died, still deprived of his long time wish to be recognize as a man of his time.

To acknowledge the existence of a higher power, we may call Him God, savior, creator, maker or to which we choose to surrender our existence that there indeed is a purpose and meaning for our life and to closely connect with our fellowmen no matter what indifferences we may have of opinion and be grateful for what we've learned is the ultimate quest of each man. Not for personal self gratification.

Though Nietzsche's work didn't stop when he died, he somehow managed to gain some reputable recognition for his works thru the Danish critic and scholar Georg Brandes, who lectured on Nietzsche at the University of Copenhagen in 1888. The philosophers thoughts influenced among others Thomas Mann, Herman Hesse, André Malraux, André Gide, Albert Camus, Rainer Maria Rilke, Stefan George, Sigmund Freud, and Jean Paul Sartre.

Although the Nazis used some of the philosopher's ideas, Nietzsche was deeply opposed to the collective tendencies that labelled National Socialism. He rejected biological racism and German nationalism, writing "every great crime against culture for the last four hundred years lies on their conscience." Nazis, on the other hand, welcomed Nietzsche's view of "Herrenmensch," a new type of man who with his robber instincts was able to manipulate the masses and who was a law unto himself.

After all these years, I still couldn't grasp the thought and mind of a man whose only view is to be himself, finding no purpose in living, having no subjection to a force greater than himself and would be ungrateful for all that has been his thorough existence.

If only Nietzsche live out one of his quotes written above, he would have found happiness and never have to live in vain.

US recession and China's overheating economies

The buzz of a US economic recession has been circling around, the US sub-prime mortgage crisis that started early September 2007 has dealt a big blow to consumer spending as well as household liquidity and has spread out on a global scale relating to banks and financial institutions relating to sub-prime markets.

Many well known financial groups such as Merryll Lynch, Citigroup, Barclays and Northern Rock of UK has been partly been a casualty in part or wholly in all these Sub-prime crisis. Citigroup even announced a 4300 employment cut by the end of January 2008 and Allan Greenspan, the former Federal Reserve Chairman, last Friday made a notable remark saying the United States is significantly at-risk of facing a recession. Greenspan made those statements while speaking during the Cambridge Energy Research Associates(CERA) Week 2008 event.

Greenspan cited "we are clearly on the edge" placing the odds at 50% or better that the economy will go into recession. But significantly due to low interest rates in the past years and the recent lowering of interest rates by the new Fed chair Bernanke several times in the past 3 months has encourage more and more liquidity into the market and thus has prevented the economic downturn of the US market.

Recession being defined in macroeconomics as the decline in a country's gross domestic products (GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year.

However the 2007 3rd and 4th quarter results of GDP of the US economy hasn't been release yet and this all the more makes everyone jittery as to the outcome of the figures.

Rising oil prices which has so far reached $100/barrel at the start of the year 2007 and has slowly been managing to stay hold between the $80-90/barrel in the recent week and would definitely affect inflation among many economies dependent on Oil, the China economy heating up and overflowing liquidity has also not been too helpful though China may be experiencing the opposite of what the US has been going through these days, too much liquidity or funds in the market can also pose a different economic backslash especially when China's economy grew another 11% in 2007 wherein the economic managers of China are trying to temper to atleast 10% for the entire 2008 and the US long been wary about the control currency control on the yuan and only in the past months has the People's Bank of China allowed the free flowing devaluation of their currency.

People's Bank of China's years of controlling their currency is now posing a threat of over heating, if the business and government could not pour their excess liquidity into more economic value and new business entities or investments abroad. Even with the recent active role being played by China on the economic life of most African nations, there is still so much overflowing funds that needs to be tamed from their economy. China has been exploring ventures in mining, oil, power generations, transportation, even healthcare and education in African nations.

Last year China organized an African-Sino Summit where China writes off US $1.3B of 31 of Africas poorest nations and thus pledged more educational and healthcare support for the African nations(lucky for them, when will we have such a generous sponsor!!!)

The contrast in the US state and the China economy have both significant impact on the world economies especially if the US goes into recession since alot of world economies are dependent on the consumer spending and purchasing power of the dollar. China on the other hand may gain some temporary relief as majority of their exports are dependent on the US economy, the relief may come in the slowing of their overheated economy.

As many economists has been projecting, I also do not believe the US economy is entering into recession. perhaps a slowdown yes, but a recession would be unlikely at this time, especially with the coming US election, the crunch on the sub-prime sector which may have a long term effect and would more or less caution banks and financial markets to be moderate with their accounting as to avoid write offs unless they are China who can easily forgive debts. "Forgive us of our debts as we forgive our debtors".

Memoriam

As we were attending the church service today, it was a sad day to note the passing of a very promising young Pastor, Kevin Alamag and his wife Abella last thursday, February 14 due to a vehicular accident along Commonwealth avenue.

Pastor Kevin Alamag has shown exemplenary leadership not only at GCF but as well as in his previous pastoring at Church of the Risen Lord in UP Diliman. Oftentimes he would lead the pastoral prayer at the 6pm Sunday service where I am attending, and it shows by the way he leads the congregational prayer that he indeed has the passion and the whole-hearted devotion in service towards God and for the church. I got the first glimpse of him last year when he seems being groomed by our senior Pastor Luis Pantoja for greater responsibilities up ahead in the church ministry.

But that's life and God knows what is best. Pastor Kevin Alamag and his wife Abella's mission in this life may have been over and called have called them home to a place where no tears, no fear and no worries will have to reign anymore and where God has prepared a place far beyond our imagination to fathom.

God has always been a God of surprises and mysteries... The day Pastor Kevin and Abella had that accident, it was a Valentine's day and God called them to share the date and banquet with Him in his domain... trully indeed a valentines date fit for the loving children of God, prepared by the Majestic King Himself.

Life is a journey and one day we shall be called home as well, so let us strive to live our every day life pleasing before God and Savior Jesus Christ. So that when the time comes for us to present our accountabilty before our righteous master, we can say, we have been a good steward of what He has given us in this earthly dwelling.

To Pastor Kevin and sister Belle, thank you for all the prayer and service you've given us, for the love you've shared, for the people you've touched and for those you've inspired and knowing that you'd both continue to smile upon us from heaven.

We will miss the voice that led our congregational prayer but we will always linger in our hearts the memory of your leading.

15 years get-together

I find sheer pleasure and joy for my role...

Feb 2, 2008 (8:25pm) : I received a call while playing badminton with my high school friend Aleem and his AIM peers at the Blue Rackets Gym in Makati. It was Patrick, our classmate also back in our Notre Dame Boys' days who worked in Indonesia and I've last seen last Sept 2007.

"Yo Man, where you tonight" Patrick said

"I'm here with Aleem playing badminton, why? where are you, you back in Manila", I replied

"Yeah, Lets have a drink later tonight",

"sure, lemme check with Al", i told him.

Al agreed but to meet by midnight at around GB3, Pat wants it at the Fort.

"I'll text you later after the game" I said before hanging up the phone.

A text to Mark who works for McCann Ericson ensued. Mark, whom I haven't seen for over 8 years after we had our falling out ages ago and who happens to be our class valedictorian has been exchanging emails, YM and text messages with me for the past 5 yrs and who seems to be busy all the time for anything else. Suddenly seems to be agreable to the idea of meeting up but only for starbucks. Knowing Patrick and Aleem to be both beer drinkers and loves the party life, I am not sure the coffee conversation would be agreable to them, so I told Mark to get back to him and I need to figure out the exact place where were going to meet.

After the game of badminton, Aleem went back to AIM to take a shower and change for our night out. Patrick texted and informing me that if I and Aleem wouldn't be at the Mint Bar at the Fort by 10:30pm he'd leave, so texting him that were on our way despite the time almost being past 11pm.

Wew arrived at the Mint Bar, and what a surprise, Patrick was with Michael, another classmate who studied medicine in Davao and two other girls around their table. we had a few exchanges of chat, then getting back to texting Mark that were at the Fort, he called to ask what time we'd leave the bar, Patrick and Aleem ssems to have so much fun that I told him perhaps 1am, So Mark said, I'd be there by 1am and suggested we find a coffee shop around the area.

I've got to prepare the others for the eventual arrival of Mark who want to have coffee, and seems everyone is amenable to pack up our boozing time by 12:30 midnight.

Mark arrived while were leaving the parking lot, we proceeded to Alchemy Bar in Ortigas as the two gals seems to want to party at the Alchemy. when we got there, a starbucks happens to be nearby, so the five of us former classmates, foes of debates and academics for that matter back in our High school years decided to send the two girls home, Patrick hurled the cab for the two girls while we went for coffee.

Mark foot the bill, and the rest of us were amaze at such generosity. Knowing Mark to be stingy in the past years weve come to know him as a classmate, and as a friend. "This is a welcome development" we all echoed behind his ears...hahahahaha

We talked and shared stories, memories, friends, foes, crushes, gossips, our funny moments in the past years and at the end of that get together, we spent over 5 hours together reminiscing the many years that has gone by and the people who we haven't seen for sometime.

Somehow a part of this evening can be categorize as reconciliatory, for me and Mark, For Mark and Patrick who also had falling out after Y2K, Aleem and Patrick had some unspoken angst due to a past girlfriend whom Aleem courted but Patrick got the approval.

It was indeed a thought wondering years, a night to cherish as part of our memories of each other... and more to follow in the next few days and hopefully we can find more of our former classmates whom we spent 4 yrs of our High school lives together from our class named St. Stephen, St. John to St. Gabriel in a far away city so often misunderstood and we so bemused to have changed drastically with our growing up.

The woman who changed me!

I entered a building so uniquely adorned, spacious and brightly painted. I am required to leave behind my cellphone and other electronic gadgets with me, register for the 4 evening seminar(monday, tues, thursday and friday). The woman then gave me a temporary ID after I presented to her my ID card and at exactly 6pm everyone should already be inside this room where the walling is curiously hieroglyphics of ancient Egypt. At the front center is a wide blackboard and seems like its an auditorium class of a university.

I thought what am I here for.... but everyone filled the room and there even is not enough chairs to fill the crowd so some have to stand at the side and back of the room. Then a woman walked thru from a small door on the back of the left side corner of the room, in a delicately white pants and dress, her hair is so attractively raised like she just came from a salon, she has this eyes so distinct and well browed, and fear gripped me that I thought I saw a witch in sheeps clothing. Oh my gosh! is she going to hypnotize us in the room? She was like a witch I dreaded when I was a child from all those fairy tales.

She holds a cordless microphone and began to introduce herself as Charley Barretto emphasizing the E in her name Charley, a resounding beautiful voice I've ever heard marveled into my ears. Soft spoken and with her smile I somehow felt a bit relaxed. She then called attention to those who were there for the very first time and she tried to play along our emotions that when certainly viewed her as a with(my golly, she can even read our minds).

She discussed the principles of life, the Science of Mind and Man Center is all about, the sphere of the Universe, our god within, the conscious and the sub-conscious mind, the power of thoughts and things, belief, every positive ideas becomes the visible.

Every night for 4 to 5 hours she would only talk how we can be prosperous, abundant, rich, powerful, its tapping thru the sub-conscious being within ourselves. and showing us the light to shine our path into a more abundant beingness.

It was already a friday night, the last evening of the 4 day seminar, somehow I understood slowly the manner by which to conquer my fear and doubts. But tonight its all going to be different coz I will either walk out of this place still the same or a changed man in mind and heart and soul.

As she put down her microphone and calls for the closing of her seminar, she walks and vanishes into the confines of her private room. I felt a changed man, I saw a new meaning and hope for living. I saw her not as she first came in 5 nights ago when I first had a glimpse of her, a bewitching hag. Tonight I saw her as the light and the angelic beauty of a woman I would love to meet again.

For many years I continued to attend the class of Ms. Charley Barretto which rarely happens once or twice every year.

I am grateful for the time I was able to listen and attend her class, without those nuggets of her thoughts, I would have viewed life in a different sphere and am proud to have acquired the wisdom from a Charley Barretto, The Science of Mind.

I'm a true blue Sommist.

Year of the Rat

a rat display made up of yellow fruit

The year of the Rat is the first animal sign of the chinese zodiac, a hopeful restart button so to speak in all our life, its like a refresh of everything we have done for the past years, and as humans, we are always hopeful, having that positive anticipation of greater things to come our way, better life, better year, a good family and health, a better financial condition and fewer debts etc.  

Its that part of ourselves that recreate a hopeful new beginnings and make wishes and prayers.  No matter where we are in the world or what faith we believe in, it is always a good start to be set a positive tone and create a good vibes of energy to re-envigorate us to anticipate better things for the coming days, months and year.  Letting go of our past year's shortcomings and pitfalls.

May the new year of the rat bring happiness and joy for everyone and let us forgive ourselves for our shortcomings and aim to grow better and better in the days ahead. 

Nerona

Most precious dearly beloved,
accomplished in caressing beauty and perfection.
Rumbles the silence of this oblivious heart,
transcending charm in the realm of solitude,
empoering in gracefulness and sensuality.

Nonchalantly captivates the glimpse of myriad beaus;
exhilirating kiss of passionate bliss;
rendezvous of utopic rhythm, this restless soul,
orgasmic seraph of high dominion,
noble in this perilous midst,
a lover worthy of beholding for eternity.

Dearly beloved, my life solely devoted...